In December, 2002, ten of the most prominent brokerage firms in the country agreed to a massive settlement. The charges involved well-documented claims that analyst reports issued by these firms were deceptive. The firms sold out their retail clients to curry favor with their underwriting clients.
The industry unleashed a massive PR campaign. It convinced you that it saw the error of its ways. They had "reformed." You could trust them again with your hard earned assets.
And you did. Money flowed back in the coffers of these firms and others.
Investment banks are beginning to rethink their commitments to doing business in Russia. The New York Times reports that many investors believe the risks of doing business in Russia are beginning to exceed the benefits. Maybe that is what Russia intends. Once western investors have put their money in, why not push them out and take their property?
Here are some examples:
Mechel - The Times reports that Vladimir Putin's criticism of the CEO of Mechel, a coal mining and steel company, wiped out billions of dollars of its stock market value
BP-TNK - The CEO and other western executives of BP-TNK, BP's (NYSE: BP) joint venture in Russia, were shoved out under pressure from the government and BP's Russian partners.
Declining stock market - The Russian stock market is down 25% in the last two months, alone.
Evaporating investment banking business - According to the Times, "Investment banking revenue from Russia was $148 million from mid-July to now. That is down from $260 million from mid-June to mid-July."
Today was somewhat tiring -- there was no real direction and the media was competing for any broad stories with meat to them. Selling picked up at the end of the day and broke a three-day run. The US trade deficit came in narrower than expected and oil prices came down another $1.00+ to well under $114 per barrel. While there was more negative news in financial stocks, today's drumming may have been more analyst driven than on other days where large drops were seen. As you will see, bond yields came down sharply today.
Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels: DJIA 11,642.47 (-1.19%) S&P500 1,289.59 (-1.20%) NASDAQ 2.430.61 (-0.38%) 10 YR T-Note 3.918% (-0.08%) Top Analyst Upgrades Top Analyst Downgrades
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) rose on two separate analyst calls. It was started as "Outperform" in news coverage at Credit Suisse and Lehman Brothers also reiterated an "Outperform" rating. Shares were up almost 25 at $176.48 in today's final minutes.
Capstone Turbine Corp. (NASDAQ: CPST) managed to rack up gains despite fears over cautious earnings. The company had a single order that accounted for this and racked up another gain to its backlog. Shares were up 7.5% at $2.61 in today's final minutes. Here are the Q&A comments from the conference call.
CNNMoney notes that Morgan Stanley said it would offer to repurchase all ARS "held by individuals, charities and small and medium-sized business with accounts of $10 million or less at the bank." Morgan Stanley will begin to start buying back $4.5 billion worth of ARS on September 30th and will "make its best effort to provide liquidity solutions" for institutional investors by the end of 2009. But New York attorney general Andrew Cuomo is not satisfied with Morgan Stanley's proposal.
Meanwhile, the list of big ARS issuers that have not settled grows shorter. Here are six holdouts (with their 2007 municipal ARS issuance in parentheses):
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says all that money has to go somewhere, and this is a likely destination.
Clash of the ideals! Oil's down, and what can you buy when there's so much bad bank news? What can you buy when Wachovia (NYSE: WB) (Cramer's Take) is boosting reserves and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS)) (Cramer's Take) is still being pursued by authorities and JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) (Cramer's Take) says July stunk and UBS (NYSE: UBS) (Cramer's Take) is so tarnished that you can't believe it was once the most conservative blue chip out there.
The answer is tech, of course!
Wait a second. Would anyone mind if we actually had a reason to buy tech beyond the Kindle, the device that made Citigroup gaga about Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) (Cramer's Take) -- not that you needed a device to do that.
Sure, we have pre-seasonality. Remember, you are supposed to buy tech at the end of the summer, not that anyone waits that long.
U.S. stock futures were mixed Tuesday morning following more negative news out of the financial sector: J.P. Morgan announced a $1.5 billion write-down, UBS a loss, while Wachovia and Morgan Stanley are dealing with auction rate securities. However, oil futures declined further to near $113 a barrel, offsetting financial sector woes and pushing stock futures higher. Russia halted its attacks on Georgia, signaling a cease-fire could come near. [Update 9:09: Seems lower oil wasn't enough to offset financials' concerns and futures now indicate stocks could start flat to lower.] JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission that it suffered more substantial third-quarter losses related to the hard-hit mortgage sector than it did in the second quarter and had to take a $1.5 billion write-off on mortgage-backed securities and loans.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) said late Monday that it will offer to buy back up to $4.5 billion of auction-rate securities from retail clients, following similar announcements from rivals. The broker also said it will make whole any losses suffered by retail clients who bought auction-rate securities through the firm and try to provide liquidity solutions for institutional investors.
JP Morgan upgraded AMR (NYSE: AMR), Continental (NYSE: CAL), and US Air (NYSE: LCC) to Overweight from Underweight, according toBriefing.com. The news service also writes that Deutsche Bank downgraded Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) to Hold from Buy.
After nearly six months of stalemate, things are finally starting to happen for holders of Auction Rate Securities (ARS) -- the $330 billion of long-term debt whose yield used to reset in weekly auctions. This morning, The Boston Globe reports that UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) is poised to announce that it will redeem $19.4 billion worth of ARS and pay $150 million in fines, split between Massachusetts and New York. UBS follows Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) and Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MER), which yesterday announced plans to redeem over $17 billion worth of ARS.
Why should you care? If you have money frozen in these securities, the reason is obvious. If not, what's happening here suggests three lessons for investors:
Don't buy without knowing. Before you buy anything a broker is trying to sell you, read the prospectus, find out how the broker will be compensated for the sale, and if you don't understand what you're buying, don't buy it. Many people bought based on broker pitches that ARSs were cash equivalents, highly liquid, and yielded slightly more than money market funds. It turns out that ARS auctions started failing publicly last September.
If your money becomes illiquid, make alot of noise. ARS investors contacted government officials and the media in an organized way. The public attention led to investigations by legal officials. That attention uncovered UBS e-mails demonstrating that brokerage firms decided to dump the toxic waste from their own books to the accounts of their individual customers -- even as their executives dumped the securities from their own portfolios.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says we're back in the same predicament, and more bank runs could be the result.
No one did a deal. The financials rallied gigantically, there was tremendous enthusiasm, and yet no bank was ready with an offering. It is amazing, especially when you consider that the natural gas companies, like Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK) (Cramer's Take) and XTO Energy (NYSE: XTO) (Cramer's Take) were ready, despite horrible declines in their stocks.
Just spot 'em right out there. For about a week, people decided the rally could - and would - last if these banks had built up some fortresses. They didn't.
And that's why we are back in the same predicament. I don't want to write here which bank is next to fail. There are enough of them (particularly one that just changed its CEO) that the FDIC will have to have a plan to keep the bad loans and sell the banks, maybe not even with the branches because all that's worth anything is the deposits.
Jefferies Group Inc. (NYSE: JEF), a middle market investment bank, showed that it can deal with the treacherous credit crunch. While its latest quarterly report showed a 16% drop in revenues to $392 million, it wasn't as bad as the Street expected (the consensus estimate was $275 million). Taking out some charges, earnings came to $0.04 per share (the Street estimate was a loss of $0.16).
The major weakness came from the investment banking. However, there was strength on the trading side, such as with junk bonds.
Basically, Jefferies has taken a number of steps to maintain liquidity and protect its capital base. In fact, in April the company got a $434 million capital infusion from Leucadia National.
As a sign of how disconnected one can be, I had to ask my 12-year old about Steve & Barry's. I had not heard of it and it is receiving way too many comments on our site to be ignored. My colleague Zac Bissonnette started blogging about it a month ago Steve & Barry's on the brink of bankruptcy? and the comments are still coming in strong as the story progressed.
Steve & Barry's filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on July 9, 2008, and information about its status and answers to frequently asked questions can be found here.
The company has been expanding rapidly and clearly hit a brick wall with consumer budgets severely strained and the economy facing uncertainty in the short term. However, this is supposed to be a discount chain. Perhaps the discounting amounted to selling dollars for ninety cents, and it could not make it up on volume.
This is a relatively small company, but clearly it matters to a lot of people. The number of comments we have received has surpassed most of our recent stories, even those of the Bear Stearns takeover (acquired by JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM)) and the IndyMac (NYSE: IDMC) collapse.
Steve & Barry's might have had an IPO sometime in its future, but that is not likely in the current environment. What is it that makes this story so compelling to our readers? If it is because the stores are so great, what went wrong in your neighborhood?
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of any of JPM.
Back in the early 1990s, the U.S. was mired in a recession and the money center banks were in dire straits. But, of course, it was a great opportunity for investors.
So, are we seeing a repeat? Perhaps so, although, you still need to tread carefully. This is according to a front-page piece in Barron's [a paid publication].
And yes, this week has been particularly encouraging, as seen with a widespread rally in the financials. It certainly helped that there was strength from Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) and JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM). At the same time, the results from Citigroup (NYSE: C) weren't as bad as expected.
By any measure -- such as price-to-book values and P/Es -- the financials look extremely cheap. Besides, these companies are taking quick medicine in terms of write offs. In other words, once financials report next year, the comparisons should look strong.
Something else: the Securities and Exchange Commission has implemented new rules on short selling (regarding 19 financial companies). Ultimately, this may relieve some of the volatility.
U.S. stock futures turned higher Friday morning after earnings from Citigroup that beat expectations offset disappointment from Merrill, Google and Microsoft. There was also some pressure from oil as prices rebounded to above $131 a barrel, following Nigeria cutting output.
Many on Thursday started wondering if we have seen the bottom. Stocks rallied for a second straight session as oil continued its price drop. Better -than-expected earnings for JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) again lifted banks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 207.38 points, or 1.9%, the S&P 500 index rose 15.7 points, or 1.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 27.45 points, or 1.2%.
Without any economic releases today, the market will continue to focus on earnings, and investors have a lot to mull, especially after Thursday's wave of financial results releases after the close, and with financials and techs being in the center of attention.
After JPMorgan Chase brought on some optimism with its results Thursday morning, Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) reported after the close a wider-than-expected loss of $4.65 billion, or $4.9 a share, on $9.7 billion of credit-market writedowns. The loss per share was larger than any analyst had expected according to Bloomberg survey. MER shares are declining over 4.8% in premarket trading.
After hitting a one-year high of $33.65 last July, the stock hit a one-year low of $6.41 on Tuesday. RF opened this morning at $8.88. So far today the stock has hit a low of $8.09 and a high of $9.91. As of 12:45, RF is trading at $9.07, up 1.06 (12.8%). The chart for RF looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an August bull-put credit spread below the $5 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 13.6% return in just one month as long as RF is above $5 at August expiration. RF would have to fall by more than 44% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
RF hasn't been below $6.40 at all in the past year and has shown support around $7 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out on 7/22) disappoint, but most of the banks that have reported so far have responded well to their earnings reports.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in RF nor CMA. He does own and control bullish hedged trades on PNC and JPM.
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In December, 2002, ten of the most prominent brokerage firms in the country agreed to a massive settlement. The charges involved well-documented claims that analyst reports issued by these firms were deceptive. The firms sold out their retail clients to curry favor with their underwriting clients.
Investment banks are beginning to rethink their commitments to doing business in Russia. The 
Today was somewhat tiring -- there was no real direction and the media was competing for any broad stories with meat to them. Selling picked up at the end of the day and broke a three-day run. The US trade deficit came in narrower than expected and oil prices came down another $1.00+ to well under $114 per barrel. While there was more negative news in financial stocks, today's drumming may have been more analyst driven than on other days where large drops were seen. As you will see, bond yields came down sharply today.
U.S. stock futures were mixed Tuesday morning following more negative news out of the financial sector: J.P. Morgan announced a $1.5 billion write-down, UBS a loss, while Wachovia and Morgan Stanley are dealing with auction rate securities. However, oil futures declined further to near $113 a barrel, offsetting financial sector woes and pushing stock futures higher. Russia halted its attacks on Georgia, signaling a cease-fire could come near.
After nearly six months of stalemate, things are finally starting to happen for holders of Auction Rate Securities (ARS) -- the $330 billion of long-term debt whose yield used to reset in weekly auctions. This morning, 
As a sign of how disconnected one can be, I had to ask my 12-year old about 
Back in the early 1990s, the U.S. was mired in a recession and the money center banks were in dire straits. But, of course, it was a great opportunity for investors.
and 
. He also operates 
U.S. stock futures turned higher Friday morning after earnings from Citigroup that beat expectations offset disappointment from Merrill, Google and Microsoft. There was also some pressure from oil as prices rebounded to above $131 a barrel, following 
Slow approach to raising bank capital loses the race against write-offs
Cramer on BloggingStocks: The SEC's waffling will be deadly
How Fannie and Freddie will fail
