You may see a recommendation to "overweight" a stock or sector. An analyst is bullish on a stock or group and feels buying more than usual will be rewarded. It may or may not come true. While it's a good idea to overweight at times, it should never be done in excess, to a point where you're putting too much of your portfolio in one stock or group of stocks. That's when overweight turns into speculate.
A rational approach to building a portfolio is to have at least five different sectors, ones that aren't correlated. There are different definitions of sectors but there are usually between 10 and 15, depending on what publication or expert you use. These sectors are categorized into broad groups, such as Healthcare, Technology, Manufacturing, etc. Within each sector are many industries. Value Line defines 98 different industries, ranging from Coal to Auto Parts to Water Utility to Beverages. Healthcare, as one example of a sector, has pharmaceutical companies, hospitals, medical devices, anything associated with health. Technology has a broad spectrum as well, encompassing everything from computers to wireless communication.
Financials have staged an impressive rally from extremely oversold levels," says Kelley Wright, editor of the top-rated IQ Trends, which focuses on high quality, blue chip, dividend-paying stocks. Here's his top long-term buys among banks.
"It is increasingly evident that the banking sector is dividing into two distinct camps; the have's and the have not's. The 'have's' are:
"The impressive rally to date notwithstanding, it still remains to be seen whether another retracement will develop should crude oil, gold and other commodities reverse course.
"A strong rally in these sectors could send the market down again. While Mr. Market can do whatever he pleases, it is highly unusual for stocks to bottom in the summer.
"It would not be imprudent to see what September and October have to offer before anyone begins to talk seriously about the bottom. For investors with an appetite for the financials, however, we would suggest dusting off that old tried and true tactic of dollar cost averaging as a prudent means to establish positions."
Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.
There are clearly some banks, thrifts and other financial institutions doing better than others. That became clear in the most recent earnings releases. Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) showed a profit. True, lower than last year but that was expected. What wasn't expected was better revenues and lower losses. JPMorgan & Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) had a similar story. So did Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC). Citigroup (NYSE: C) gave better than predicted numbers. Those were the good announcements.
Not doing so well is Wachovia Bank (NYSE: WB). That loss was much larger than analysts projected. The bank cut the dividend, as expected. The stock gave up more ground.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says we're back in the same predicament, and more bank runs could be the result.
No one did a deal. The financials rallied gigantically, there was tremendous enthusiasm, and yet no bank was ready with an offering. It is amazing, especially when you consider that the natural gas companies, like Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK) (Cramer's Take) and XTO Energy (NYSE: XTO) (Cramer's Take) were ready, despite horrible declines in their stocks.
Just spot 'em right out there. For about a week, people decided the rally could - and would - last if these banks had built up some fortresses. They didn't.
And that's why we are back in the same predicament. I don't want to write here which bank is next to fail. There are enough of them (particularly one that just changed its CEO) that the FDIC will have to have a plan to keep the bad loans and sell the banks, maybe not even with the branches because all that's worth anything is the deposits.
"The financial sector got a boost after our Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), a buy recommendation in our model income portfolio, reported better-than-expected earnings," notes Jack Adamo.
The editor of Insiders Plus, explains, " While Wells, like virtually every other bank, is dragging its heels a bit on recognizing losses on bad mortgages, there were elements of the report that were unquestionably great.
"In its latest quarterly report, Wells Fargo reported:
• Revenues were up 16% year-over-year. • Average loans were up 18% year-over-year. • Net interest margin was 4.92%, up 23 basis points from Q1 • Net interest income increased 21% year-over-year.
"The fact that Wells is one of the few banks that is still well-capitalized enough to write loans was a large contributor to its increase in revenues.
Back in the early 1990s, the U.S. was mired in a recession and the money center banks were in dire straits. But, of course, it was a great opportunity for investors.
So, are we seeing a repeat? Perhaps so, although, you still need to tread carefully. This is according to a front-page piece in Barron's [a paid publication].
And yes, this week has been particularly encouraging, as seen with a widespread rally in the financials. It certainly helped that there was strength from Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) and JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM). At the same time, the results from Citigroup (NYSE: C) weren't as bad as expected.
By any measure -- such as price-to-book values and P/Es -- the financials look extremely cheap. Besides, these companies are taking quick medicine in terms of write offs. In other words, once financials report next year, the comparisons should look strong.
Something else: the Securities and Exchange Commission has implemented new rules on short selling (regarding 19 financial companies). Ultimately, this may relieve some of the volatility.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: eBay (EBAY), Wells Fargo (WFC) and ASML Holdings (ASML) were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Thomas Weisel downgraded shares of eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) following the company's Q2 results, as they did not see an improvement in the underlying fundamentals. Goldman lowered eBay to Neutral from Buy and cut its target to $30 from $38.
UBS downgraded Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) to Neutral from Buy citing valuation and reduced capital flexibility.
Merrill downgraded shares of ASML Holdings (NASDAQ:ASML) to Underperform from Neutral as they believe the company's demand slowdown could carry into next year.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) was cut to Neutral from Buy at Piper.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says if we get fed support for a housing bottom, we can really turn things around.
If I were at Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) (Cramer's Take), today would be a day where I issued several billion in preferred stock or I issued a multibillion equity offering. Why? Because the deed is done; the shorts panicked and covered and took the stock up where it could now be worth doing a deal.
If things are so great at WFC, why do they have to do a deal? Simple: They have a big increase in nonperformers, and when you have a big increase in nonperformers ,you raise capital. Period.
Yesterday's relief rally was not about housing prices bottoming -- I think that will happen next year, not this year -- it was about getting the shorts. The shorts had had their way all over everything. Suddenly you get this surprise smackdown by Chris Cox of the so-called naked shorts -- it's really not at all about that if these stocks aren't hard to borrow -- and you get a dividend boost, something that shorts don't like to pay.
Reuters reports that today is a big one for bank and technology earnings. It looks like Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) will lose big and will try to soften the blow with an announcement about selling its 20% of Bloomberg LP for $4.5 billion to its founder, New York mayor, Michael Bloomberg. JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and a handful of big technology companies are expected to report profits. But will they be enough?
Meanwhile, how can we make sense of yesterday's 276 point rally on Wall Street? Nobody knows what happened, but theories abound: the price of oil fell -- possibly due to anticipation that the Fed would raise interest rates to deal with inflation that is roaring out of control. Higher interest rates would strengthen the dollar, which would drive down the price of oil since it's traded in dollars. But I think yesterday's market was a short-covering frenzy. With the SEC foolishly squeezing the shorts, they needed to cover their bets that financials would fall further. Of course good news from Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) didn't hurt.
Today's earnings -- with estimates courtesy of a Reuters analyst survey -- are likely to move the market. Here's a roundup:
Merrill Lynch is expected to lose $1.94
JPMorgan was expected to make $0.44, down 63% from 2007. At a Price/Earnings to Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.4 and a P/E of 12 on earnings forecast to grow 31% to $3.34 in 2009, it looks cheap. CNNMoney reports it made 54 cents -- well ahead of expectations and its shares are up 5% in premarket.
Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) will earn 47 cents a share, a 21% increase from last year. At a PEG ratio of 1.1 and a P/E of 15 on earnings forecast to grow 14.3% to $2.16 in 2009, it looks reasonably priced.
Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK) shares are up over 7.4% in premarket trading after the world's largest maker of handsets said second-quarter profit fell 61% to $1.75 billion, or 46 cents per share, while sales rose 4% to $20.87 billion. Excluding items, Nokia's profit rose 8% to $2.18 billion. Nokia beat estimates of earnings of 56 cents per share on $20.05 billion in revenue, according to Thomson Financial. The mobile phone maker slightly raised its forecast for the mobile phone industry, saying volume would grow 10% or more in 2008.
Continental Airlines (NYSE: CAL) are up again this morning after climbing 38% Wednesday with the rest of the airline stocks. Continental swung to a second-quarter loss, hurt by record high fuel prices and weakening economic conditions. Still the losses of $3 million, or 3 cents per share, or excluding one-time items totaled $25 million, or 25 cents per share, beat expectations of a loss of 49 cents per share.
Yum Brands (NYSE: YUM) shares are down 4.3% in premarket trading after it reported a second-quarter profit of $224 million, or 45 cents a share. Revenue rose to $2.65 billion from $2.37 billion a year ago. While this beat estimates, and while the company raised its earnings growth forecast for the full year to 12% from 11%, investors were concerned about rising food costs which hurt profit margins in the second quarter.
It seems that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL)'s new 3G iPhone was sold out in Germany after less than a week. Deutsche Telekom AG's T-Mobile division sold 15,000 iPhones and it's not clear when Apple will be able to deliver more iPhones for the German market, Financial Times Deutschland reported.
UBS downgraded Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) from "neutral" from "buy', according toBriefing.com. The new service reports that Citigroup initiated Genentech (NYSE:DNA) at "buy" with a $91 price target.
U.S. stock futures edged higher Thursday morning, a day after market staged a big rally. Investors this morning are bracing for some housing data, but more importantly, a wave of earnings. Already better-than-expected earnings from J.P. Morgan Chase boosted stock index futures from earlier declines this morning.
On Wednesday, bulls finally came back in drove to but equity as oil price continued its decline and airlines and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) reported results that Wall Street found encouraging, sending airline and financials stocks through the roof. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended a three-day losing streak, jumping 276.74 points, or 2.5%. The S&P 500 climbed 30.45 points, or 2.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 69.14 points, or 3.1%.
Still, all this sentiment might yet evaporate, or be seriously damped after housing data is released at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Building permits and housing starts for June are due out at that time. Also, weekly jobless claims will continue to paint the picture of the goings on in the labor market. At 10:00 a.m., the Philadelphia Fed index for July will be reported.
It would be interesting to see how the data and earnings play out. Already, J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) reported it profit sank 53% in the second quarter to $2.00 billion, or 54 cents per share. That beat estimates of 44 cents share. JPM shares are up over 5.5% in premarket trading.
Today was a clear win for the bulls, although the bears aren't forgotten by any measure. Oil fell another $4.00 today and to around $134/barrel. The CPI report also came in less timid than some PPI watchers were expecting, although it is still very high. Today's rally is probably more attributable to pricing action in banking and transportation stocks. Even the stodgy FOMC minutes didn't hurt today.
Below are the unofficial closing bell levels for index levels today:
Airline earnings came out very cautiously but not as bad as many would have guessed and didn't have the ring of any immediate death sentences for the industry. AMR Corp. (NYSE: AMR), the parent of American Airlines, managed to post better than expected gains before items even if its losses were near $1 billion. Its shares were up over 33% at $5.90 in today's final minutes. This may have actually been the best day ever for major airline stocks.
Yesterday's Major League All-Star Game went into extra innings (15 total) before the American League won 4 to 3, earning the home field advantage when the World Series rolls around in October. Yesterday was also the day I called the bottom of our economic woes (see Will Bush throw a change-up at Yankee Stadium?).
Calling the bottom should not be confused with the end of the pain. It could get worse but I see signs of the turn, and today the market, for the moment, is up. Oil prices are down, as I write, to $132 per barrel and I do not think we will be seeing $200 oil any time soon, as some have opined.
Today's Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) earnings report set things off in the right direction. Wells Fargo: Beating expectations by my colleague Steven Halpern will give you the details, but the highlights are lower earnings, a 10% increase in the dividend yield, and a tolerable and understandable charge for bad loans and to increase reserves.
If Bush's change-up marks the bottom, then WFC is the slugger that hit the ball back over the fence. Can one report from one bank make a difference? Yes it can, if people read it as a sign of things to come. At the same time, the capitulation I describe in IndyMac (IMB) turns to dust is another sign that we may be at the turning point.
Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth And Sleep Well At Night. In this weekly column, he'll offer advice to investors who are just getting started.
Financials have staged an impressive rally from extremely oversold levels," says 
Ted Allrich is the founder of 
Back in the early 1990s, the U.S. was mired in a recession and the money center banks were in dire straits. But, of course, it was a great opportunity for investors.
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U.S. stock futures edged higher Thursday morning, a day after market staged a big rally. Investors this morning are bracing for some housing data, but more importantly, a wave of earnings. Already better-than-expected earnings from J.P. Morgan Chase boosted stock index futures from earlier declines this morning.
Yesterday's Major League All-Star Game went into extra innings (15 total) before the American League won 4 to 3, earning the home field advantage when the World Series rolls around in October. Yesterday was also the day I called the bottom of our economic woes (see 
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