A lot of investors think that oil prices will determine what happens to the stock market over the next quarter, and for the most part, that is right.
The world's largest conglomerate will report earnings next week. It has operations in almost every country in the world. It has divisions in entertainment, infrastructure, medical devices, jet engines, plastics and financial services. And that is just a partial list.
If General Electric (NYSE:GE) posts poor numbers it will be hard for the market as a whole to believe that the economy is going anywhere but down. According to Reuters, "Aside from second-quarter results, investors are anxious to see the companies' forecasts for world economic growth and their own corporate sales prospects."
It is hard to imagine that one company could set the tone that would influence how stocks may trade for several weeks, but GE does a great deal of business in Asia. Growth in that region is viewed as a salvation for large American companies.
GE also has a huge financial services arm. If it takes large write-downs, it may well be a sign that the credit crisis is growing.
GE. GE. GE.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
San Francisco Fed Reserve Bank President Yellen to speak about the U.S. economic outlook at the University of California/San Diego with a Q&A session.
Aracruz Cellulose (NYSE: ARA) to report Q2 earnings; conference call at 11:00am.
Tuesday, July 8
Richmond Fed Reserve Bank President Lacker to speak about U.S. economic outlook to the National Economists Club in Washington with a Q&A session expected.
While some companies may be consolidating, others are reconfiguring and expanding. General Electric Company (NYSE: GE) has acquired a small airplane engine company in the Czech Republic. Selling it's appliance business and adding more to it's portfolio of aircraft and engine capability should be a good move. The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) reported today that GE hopes to improve its competitive position against Pratt & Whitney.
A response from a Pratt & Whitney spokesman played down the increased competition and said that although the company takes this GE move seriously it has a 45-year history producing small engines and holds a solid position in the market place. This type of comment is to be expected and has some validity, but that does not make it good news for P&W.
P&W is a division of another major giant industrial conglomerate United Technologies (NYSE: UTX). Both GE and UTX stocks were up in early morning trading today.
UPDATE: GE closed at $26.91 up $0.40 (1.51%). UTX closed at $61.05 up $1.35 ( 2.26%).
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of GE.
I finally got around to investing a portion of my stimulus check. I had a few stocks in mind for the money, but at the end of the day, I decided that I should buy shares of a high-yielding blue chip for the very long term. It really wasn't a difficult decision. The winner of my stimulus-check buy was none other than General Electric (NYSE: GE).
I've been talking about GE a lot lately, but if you're an investor, you know there's a lot to talk about this conglomerate. No, I don't mean fundamentally, necessarily, I mean that its current yield is simply amazing. GE has dropped a lot this year, and it's gotten the attention of many value investors. In fact, I purchased some GE shares not too long ago when they were trading about six bucks higher than the current price for what I hoped would be a short-term trade. I admit it, I was wrong.
I still think my reasoning at the time was correct, and I continue to hold those shares, but I also hold a long-term position of GE that I add to several times a year with the intent of holding for the next couple decades, maybe even beyond that. It is this position that received the shares acquired through the beneficence of the government. Although some might argue that I should have improved the cost basis of my trade, I decided against such action, since I think GE might be down for a while. If I wanted to use the money for a trade, there are probably better ideas out there for it than GE. But long-term, GE's current 4.7% yield will probably turn into an effective yield of better than 20%, assuming the dividend continues to rise in the future as it has in the past (I believe it will).
The only other stock that provided real competition for my stimulus windfall is Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO). However, the GE yield was just too beautiful. Granted, Coke is obviously the more focused business, and its brand equity is impeccable. But a near 3% yield is no match for a 4.7% yield. I think I made the right decision, but time will tell. No matter what, though, anyone who buys GE now better be patient. Short-term traders might not be rewarded.
Disclosure: I own Coke and GE; positions can change at any time.
For those of you who own blue-chip stocks, this is an eye-opening prediction. An article at CNBC.com talks about the possibility of Dow 10,000. Dow 10,000!
I repeated that in case you didn't get it the first time. It sounds pretty scary to me, and it should sound pretty scary to a lot of you out there. I'd have to presume that most investors don't use the stock market primarily as a substitute casino for the times when Las Vegas is out of reach. Many of you out there must own a Disney (NYSE: DIS) or a Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), maybe a General Electric (NYSE: GE) or a Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), something generally considered core and safe for the long-term. I happen to own the first three. Anyone who does is in for some huge volatility if Dow 10,000 comes along.
Actually, whether it comes along or not, volatility is here to stay. And here's the thing about the Dow 10,000 prediction: it isn't so farfetched on a mathematical basis. When you first read that number, you say to yourself "No way, that would be like a depression!" But because the numbers are getting higher, the actual point moves aren't as dramatic as they may seem on the surface. If we hit 10,000, that would represent a decline of approximately 29% from the high reached back in October 2007. As I write this, the Dow is about 20% off the high. Is another 9% feasible?
GE July option implied volatility is at 38, August is at 32; above its 26-week average of 29 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
The good news is that we saw a Monday buying interest spree after a horrible prior week. Sellers did come in late in the day after the markets traded higher earlier, putting the markets on the verge of a negative day. The bad news is that today was the end of the quarter and it looks like we have now finished down three consecutive quarters in the U.S. stock market. Whether or not it is a bear market seems to depend on whom you consult, but things are tough for the public investor right now. This morning oil was around $143.00 on fresh Iran-Israel tensions and here were the unofficial closing bell levels today:
General Electric Company (NYSE: GE) did finally see a bounce after a research analyst came out showing anecdotal evidence that the current discount to the market is very close to major inflection points. Shares of GE were up 1.7% at $26.69 in today's final minutes.
"To say that alternative energies are critical is a severe understatement." asserts Stephen Leeb, who looks at three plays in the sector that earn a spot in his Growth Portfolio.
The editor of The Complete Investor explains, "Readily scalable energy sources such as solar and wind account for under 1%. It's time to get serious."
Three of the stocks he has selected are holdings in his model Growth Portfolio: FPL Group (NYSE: FPL), Exelon (NYSE: EXC), and General Electric (NYSE: GE). Here's a trio of favorites.
"We have focused on those alternative energy stocks with the strongest growth profiles. None is a pie in the sky fantasy; all provide energy in the here and now and have significant and fast-growing revenue streams.
"The fact that their growth should continue to burgeon is one of the most heartening pieces of news on the energy front. We could argue that investing in these stocks not only will be good for your portfolio but is an act of patriotism as well.
I didn't think Disney's (NYSE: DIS) Wall-E movie would do as well as it did over the weekend. I thought $60 million was too much to hope for (see my previous piece on the subject). I was wrong. According to Boxofficemojo, the Pixar picture pulled in more than $62 million at domestic theaters and came out on top.
Assuming the film continues to do well in upcoming weekends, Wall-E should provide a nice counterbalance to the relative disappointment of Disney's Prince Caspian project that was released in May. While Wall-E won't move Disney's stock all by itself, the movie and its characters should help drive the studio segment in future quarters, as well as provide some opportunities for promotions and initiatives in other parts of the company, such as the theme parks.
Wanted, distributed by General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal, debuted in second place with a haul of more than $50 million. The movie, starring Angelina Jolie, had some snazzy, Matrix-like commercials powering its appeal. I can see why the numbers were big on this one. Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) and Get Smart didn't stand a chance against Wanted. It dropped two spots to third place with a tally of $20 million. And, no, I still don't find Steve Carell funny.
No matter what any CEO, analyst, "guru", "market expert", strategist, fund manager, trader or message board poster says (few show all their trades and investments like me, nor are they up 60% in 2008, see details here), never try to catch a falling knife. Before I list all the current ones, I really have to pound it into your heads that buying these things in hugely uncertain -- and possibly disastrous -- times like these is not only dangerous, it's just plain irresponsible.
Now, I don't want to hear those "I'm a long-term investor in blue-chip stocks" and "these are quality companies trading at discount prices"-type comments. While it's possible these stocks will bounce, the risk-reward ratio is downright awful here, just as its been for the past several months (as I've been warning in posts like this and this).
General Electric (NYSE: GE) may be one of the most admired companies in the world, at least according to Fortune. But, Wall Street hates the company and has driven its stock to multi-year lows. The concerns have been printed dozens of times in the press: GE is too large. It has too many units that do not do well. None of the firm's divisions fit well together.
But, GE now has an attraction all its own. It pays a yield of nearly 5%. The company is still tremendously profitable and has $15 billion in cash.
If the U.S. stock market continues to drop, the successful investing tactics of the last several years, which involve putting money into is stocks because equities in general are rising quickly, may not be a good way to make money this year or next.
There are a handful of companies with iron-clad balance sheets and big dividends. The stocks of these may not go up, but their dividends are likely to stay intact. GE is at the head of this list.
With the market looking just plain awful these days, and with the theory of recession becoming more and more concrete as the dour days pass, the concept of shorting equities is gaining popularity, at least from a headline point of view. Here's an article that talks about utilizing ETFs to go short. My colleague Timothy Sykes also discussed shorting in a recent piece of his own. Both of these articles bring up excellent points, and like Tim, I don't feel there is anything unpatriotic about betting against stocks, whether they are rising or falling. We're a capitalist society, and the trading spoils should go to the winners, whether the winners be long or short.
However, I urge all individual investors out there to think before they short. Don't take betting against a company or a market average lightly. The problem with shorting now is that it might be too late. The time to have purchased, say, the Proshares Ultrashort Dow 30 (AMEX: DXD) might have been a week ago. Remember that shorting is not a long-term idea, no pun intended. Going long is, so you're essentially going to become a market-timer when you invest in a short fund. There is nothing inherently wrong about trying to hedge yourself in a downward-spiraling environment, but make sure you understand that you are making a guess about the direction of stock prices. That's a tricky endeavor at best.
One thing you must avoid doing is shorting individual stocks. I think it's safer to short averages than it is to short companies. Again, if you're really sophisticated, you can do what you want, but do you have the guts to short a General Electric (NYSE: GE) or a Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO)? Or what about a Newcastle Investment (NYSE: NCT)? A Citigroup (NYSE: C)? These are all stocks that I believe may be going lower in the short-term, but they all pay dividends, which the short-seller is still responsible for. Plus, at some point, the dividend yields will signal to investors that a bottom could be in. Besides, with short-themed ETFs around, there's really no reason to literally borrow shares and sell them into the market. There's also the method of buying put options to take advantage of a downtrending equity, so you're covered by that technique, too.
So far, the really big industries which have had lay-offs of tens of thousands of people are restricted to the troubled auto, airline, and financial sectors. That is beginning to change as the economic slowdown is become more severe and global.
One of the world's largest conglomerates, Siemens (NYSE: SI) will cut over 17,000 people. According to The Wall Street Journal (subscription required), the plan is "a broad cost-cutting drive amid tougher global economic conditions"
The move speaks volumes. Siemens does business in almost every country in the world. It has operations in the electronics, automation, infrastructure, medical, and transportation industries. Like GE (NYSE: GE), it has exposure across a vast number of sectors and regions.
The news gives some indication the economic conditions may be getting worse outside the U.S. and EU.
It is not the kind of revelation people need with the market dropping like a rock.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) has an interesting weekend coming up. The new Pixar film, Wall-E, opened today. While everyone expects it to be a hit, no one knows yet how big a hit it will ultimately be.
Pixar, of course, is a major brand in computer-generated cartoons. Its major competition is DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA). The latter's most recent hit, Kung Fu Panda, opened earlier this summer box-office season with a $60.2 million first-weekend take, according to Boxofficemojo. Last year, Ratatouilledebuted with a first-weekend take of $47 million. In my mind, for Wall-E to please shareholders and show Disney that its Pixar brand is a reliable money machine, the animated feature needs to do at least $60 million. It can't do anywhere near the Ratatouille flick since that was an example of weak opening performance, in my opinion.
I read a great review on Wall-E at the Hollywood Reporter. The author heaps praises on the film and says that Pixar's streak of success is intact. That's pretty pleasing. Yet, the review also worries me to some extent (I'm a Disney shareholder). The author says that there isn't a lot of dialogue in the picture (I guess the robot characters don't speak) and that it might be such a smart project that some moviegoers might not fully appreciate it. In this competitive timeframe, that doesn't make me feel good. I'd rather the film be simple blockbuster material for the popcorn crowd. I don't want the young kids in the audience to feel their attention spans being strained in the least. I'm not looking for art in this case. I just want my company to make as much money as possible.
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I finally got around to investing a portion of my stimulus check. I had a few stocks in mind for the money, but at the end of the day, I decided that I should buy shares of a high-yielding blue chip for the very long term. It really wasn't a difficult decision. The winner of my stimulus-check buy was none other than 
For those of you who own blue-chip stocks, this is an eye-opening prediction. An article at 
General Electric
I didn't think 
No matter what any CEO, analyst, "guru", "market expert", strategist, fund manager, trader or message board poster says (few show all their trades and investments like me, nor are they up 60% in 2008, see details 
Comfort Zone Investing: Keep your recovery expectations real
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