TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says this administration's hallmark is coming too late to the party.
A headline came over the wires yesterday, and it caused me to throw my hands up in shock: The SEC is debating new short-selling rules for the market.
I said to myself, "They have to be kidding."
How can they be so obtuse?
How can they not get what is going on?
When the market bottomed on July 15, three things occurred:
the Congress got religion on the housing bill, and the president went along;
gasoline and oil peaked; and
the SEC finally decided to crack down on the reckless bear raids that were making it impossible for our financials to refinance.
The financials then rallied huge, just huge, and the prudent ones, like Merrill's (NYSE: MER) (Cramer's Take) John Thain, took advantage of the short-selling crackdown and first, brilliantly, said he didn't need capital, exacerbating the plight of the shorts, and then jammed on a gigantic equity offering that will let Merrill get through this period.
You may see a recommendation to "overweight" a stock or sector. An analyst is bullish on a stock or group and feels buying more than usual will be rewarded. It may or may not come true. While it's a good idea to overweight at times, it should never be done in excess, to a point where you're putting too much of your portfolio in one stock or group of stocks. That's when overweight turns into speculate.
A rational approach to building a portfolio is to have at least five different sectors, ones that aren't correlated. There are different definitions of sectors but there are usually between 10 and 15, depending on what publication or expert you use. These sectors are categorized into broad groups, such as Healthcare, Technology, Manufacturing, etc. Within each sector are many industries. Value Line defines 98 different industries, ranging from Coal to Auto Parts to Water Utility to Beverages. Healthcare, as one example of a sector, has pharmaceutical companies, hospitals, medical devices, anything associated with health. Technology has a broad spectrum as well, encompassing everything from computers to wireless communication.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says struggling banks can be shorted to oblivion now that the rules won't be enforced.
Memo to the FDIC: Watch your back. The SEC just flipped its allegiance to the bad guys, the guys who want to break not just certain banks, but your bank! That's right, with the scrapping of the emergency rule that eliminated naked shorting, where you don't have to find the stock, and with the end of the vigilance against bear raiding, the SEC may have just caused a run at the FDIC.
I had hoped that the SEC would see that these financials have been manipulated to unreasonable levels, making the confidence in all institutions so low that nobody wanted to give them money. The rule change -- which when you think of it, wasn't much of a rule change as much as an enforcement of the way things are supposed to be, where you actually have to find the stock you sold short first so you don't fail to deliver -- worked!
It gave the system some breathing room. I think the rule change might have saved Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) (Cramer's Take) from being shorted into oblivion so it couldn't have done its deal. Lehman (NYSE: LEH) (Cramer's Take) didn't do a deal, those bad boys be back on the griddle now for unknown European exposure. AIG (NYSE: AIG) (Cramer's Take) wasn't protected in the first place and I believe will need to raise $10 billion to $15 billion in the teens to cover its European exposure. Now there's little hope at all for Fannie (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) or Freddie (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take), as their stocks will be blitzed into oblivion and Hank Paulson will have to start the planning of cash infusions as opposed to what he said last Sunday -- why did he say that, for heaven's sake? Maybe he's too close to John "We don't need capital" Thain from their Goldman (NYSE: GS) (Cramer's Take) days.
The bear came back today after a long nap. Financial stocks led the DJIA lower today on three key pieces of news, not at all tied to each. Some may call today profit taking, some might be disappointed that the ECB and UK didn't give any concessions on overnight interest rates. Oil was up over $1.00 and back over the $120 mark. But no matter how you call the day, it looked like another day of Chinese Water Torture in another bear market.
Below are today's unofficial closing bell levels: D.J.I.A. 11,431.19 -224.88 -1.93% NASDAQ 2,355.73 -22.64 -0.95% S&P 500 1,266.14 -23.05 -1.79% 10YR T-Bond 3.935% -0.113% 52-Week Lows Top Analyst Upgrades Top Analyst Downgrades
American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) was another huge loser after Moody's put the credit card operation debt on negative credit watch. As that affects some $89 Billion in securities and deposits, you know this makes people nervous even if the debt ratings agencies have proven to be as worthless as gold to a dead man. Shares were down almost 5% at $36.06 in today's final minutes.
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U.S. stock futures drifted lower Thursday morning on the heel of another big loss reported by AIG. With reports today that mortgages made in 2007 are going bad at a rapid pace, the blow to the financial system may be even deeper than Wall Street had estimated, and data on June pending home sales could give more information about the recent state of the housing market. Also in focus today will be July same-store sales announced by retailers, which could show a 2.2% gain due to stimulus checks and back-to-school shopping, as well as rate decisions by ECB and BOE. The latter already kept rates the same. Finally, rising oil prices could affect trading as well.
AIG (NYSE: AIG) posted its third straight quarterly loss Wednesday after the close. Analyst believe that this quarter's $5.56 billion recorded loss due to investments related to mortgages could continue in the next few quarters. AIG's results didn't just cause investors to dump the stock, but also caused overall jitters about financials. AIG shares are down over 9% in premarket trading. In Europe, Allianz, Axa, Aegon, three of the biggest insurers, also post lower earnings on asset writedowns. Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) reported a 28% profit fall in the quarter, 39% drop in operating profit. The company said the strong yen and rising costs of materials for the decline in addition to soft conditions in the U.S. all contributed to these results. While it said it plans to offset the declines by launching new vehicle models and stepping up production of popular models, it's unclear how successful that would be in light of softening economic conditions worldwide.
Staying with the auto industry, The Wall Street Journalreported that Chrysler and Nissan Motors (NASDAQ: NSANY) are in talks tabout jointly producing midsize cars, where Nissan would produce midsize sedans that Chrysler would sell in the U.S. under its own name.
AIG (NYSE:AIG) Cut to Market Perform at FBR, according to24/7 Wall St. The financial website also reported VMware (NYSE:VMW) Started as Underperform at Bernstein and Polo Ralph Lauren (NYSE:RL) Raised to Outperform at Morgan Keegan.
Credit Suisse downgraded Avon (NYSE:AVP) to Neutral from Outperform, according toBrieifing.com. The news service also reports that Jefferies downgrade UTStarcom (NASDAQ:UTSI) to Underperform from Hold.
AIG (NYSE: AIG) may have a new CEO, but his track record is no better than that of the man he replaced. The firm said its second-quarter net loss was $5.36 billion, or $2.06 a share. AIG blamed the housing and credit markets, but, of course, the real trouble rests with its risk management. According toReuters, "AIG said it recorded $5.56 billion in second quarter unrealized market valuation losses on credit default swaps, the same area that led to losses in the prior two quarters."
While the company's insurance and investing units are still profitable, AIG may have to post similar losses in the next two quarters if the US credit and housing markets get worse. It has already moved ahead with its plan to raise $20 billion. It may have to add substantially to that to offset big deficits .
With AIG's stock at about $25 and a market cap of $72 billion, another capital injection cold drive shares down to $20.
In other words, AIG's shares may be down over 50% this year, but that does not make them a good investment. The stock could actually still be one of the most risky among large-cap firms. AIG joins many other financial companies in finding that replacing CEOs does them no good.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Boeing (NYSE: BA) is recently up 20 cents to $64.80. Goldman Sachs says "Removing from the conviction sell list on crude pullback." BA September option implied volatility of 33 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price fluctuations.
American International (NYSE: AIG) is scheduled to report Q3 EPS after the market close today. Societe Generale started AIG at Sell. AIG August option implied volatility is at 99, September is at 69; above its 26-week average of 51 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.
Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
JP Morgan downgraded Novartis (NYSE: NVS) to "neutral" from "overweight", according toBriefing.com. The news service also reports that Citigroup added Freeport McMoran (NYSE: FCX) to its "Top Picks" list.
Merrill upgraded shares of AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) to Neutral from Underperform to reflect the company's pipeline momentum and lack of negative catalysts.
Keefe Bruyette upgraded Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation as they believe DB should trade at a higher multiple.
Merrill cut Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) to Underperform from Neutral as the firm sees better opportunities elsewhere in the sector.
Merriman downgraded Rackable Systems (NASDAQ: RACK) to Neutral from Buy following the company's mixed Q2 results to reflect its customer concentration and fluctuating margins.
Janus Capital (NYSE: JNS) was downgraded at JP Morgan to Underweight from Neutral.
Fortress (NYSE: FIG) was cut to Sell from Hold at Citigroup.
Analyst initiations:
UBS believes Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) has a competitive advantage and their checks indicate new Macs, new iPhone colors and potentially new iPods may come early on in the second half of 2008. The firm initiated shares with a Buy rating and $195 target. UBS also initiated Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) at Neutral.
KeyBanc initiated Bed Bath & Beyond (NASDAQ: BBBY) with an Underweight rating and $25 target based on slowing core growth at Bed Bath and likely margin erosion from the ramp in growth at Christmas Tree Shops and buybuy Baby.
Infineon (NYSE: IFX) was initiated with a Buy rating at Deutsche Bank.
U.S. stock futures were lower Tuesday morning as oil prices continued to decline, with crude falling below $120 a barrel on demand concerns due to the economic slowdown in the U.S. Commodities in general have been declining. Also today, the Federal Reserve will announce its decision regarding interest rates and it is widely expected they will remain unchanged. Similarly, the Fed's outlook statement about outlook and focus may also remain largely the same according to expectations. Meanwhile, overseas, both the ECB and BoE are expected to leave rates unchanged.
One of Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO)'s largest shareholders, Capital Research Global Investors, had asked to review the vote in last week's re-election of the Internet giant's board. Specifically, I guess, it was surprising the vote showed strong support -- 85% -- for CEO Jerry Yang. There's no sense dancing around this issue; basically the shareholder implies suspicions of wrongdoings (or really really incompetent tallying of votes).
Bloomberg reports that analysts now expect Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) to report net losses through the first quarter of 2009 as home-loan delinquencies rise to the highest on record. The the biggest U.S. mortgage-finance companies report tomorrow and according to estimates will show a loss of 74 cents and 60 cents per share respectively. The losses may be greater than expected as we've seen before analysts underestimating the credit losses. It will not be pretty.
The Wall Street Journal's Walter Mossberg said in the "Personal Technology" column that he cannot recommend Apple Inc's (NASDAQ: AAPL) MobileMe, as it has "too many flaws to keep its promises".
The Wall Street Journal also speculated that the collapse this week of SemGroup LP, which is the parent of SemGroup Energy Partners LP (NASDAQ: SGLP), may have played a role in the 14% drop in crude oil over the past 10 days.
In a move that could take advantage of the gap in the financing markets, The Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) raised $10B to invest in loans backing leveraged buyouts. The fund will reportedly buy senior loans, the Financial Times reported.
OTHER PAPERS:
Former American International Group Inc (NYSE: AIG) chief Hank Greenberg is reportedly in settlement talks with New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo over charges that Greenberg improperly inflated corporate books to show improved profits, the New York Post said.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Teva Pharmaceutical, Blue Coat Systems and American International Group were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of Teva Pharmaceutical (NASDAQ: TEVA) to Buy from Hold to reflect the company's greater growth prospects following the acquisition of Barr (NYSE: BRL). The firm raised the target to $56 from $47.
ThinkPanmure upgraded Blue Coat Systems (NASDAQ: BCSI) to Buy from Source of Funds based on the company's growth prospects following positive channel checks.
American International Group (NYSE: AIG) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Banc of America on valuation, as they find the risk/reward attractive at current levels.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Goldman upgraded the Semiconductor Production Equipment sector to Neutral from Cautious and added Verigy (NASDAQ: VRGY) to its Conviction Buy List.
Morgan Stanley upgraded Whole Foods (NASDAQ: WFMI) and Cintas (NASDAQ: CTAS) to Equal Weight from Underweight.
American International Group (NYSE:AIG) Raised to Buy at Banc of America, according to 24/7 Wall St. The financial news site also reports Nike (NYSE:NKE) Cut to Neutral at HSBC.
UBS upgrades AMR (NYSE:AMR) to Neutral from Sell, according to Briefing.com.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says this administration's hallmark is coming too late to the party. 
Ted Allrich is the founder of 
The bear came back today after a long nap. Financial stocks led the DJIA lower today on three key pieces of news, not at all tied to each. Some may call today profit taking, some might be disappointed that the ECB and UK didn't give any concessions on overnight interest rates. Oil was up over $1.00 and back over the $120 mark. But no matter how you call the day, it looked like another day of Chinese Water Torture in another bear market.
AIG
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U.S. stock futures were lower Tuesday morning as oil prices continued to decline, with crude .gif){kind=logo}
Slow approach to raising bank capital loses the race against write-offs
Cramer on BloggingStocks: The SEC's waffling will be deadly
How Fannie and Freddie will fail
